Child mortality: click image for full graphic. Illustration: Jenny Ridley for the Guardian
One of the plethora of reports about the MDGs being published at the moment is a rather good one by UNICEF called Progress for Children: Achieving the MDGs with Equity. Its comprehensive data demonstrates the danger, in the words of UNICEF's policy director Richard Morgan, of a "statistical victory, but a moral failure." In other words, while the world might meet some of the numerical targets set out 10 years ago, when you like behind the numbers, the picture is less rosy.
Take MDG4, whose headline target is to reduce child mortality by two-thirds. While great improvements have been made in child health, the world is leaving the poorest children behind. Inequality in child mortality, as in almost all other areas of human life, is increasing in our era.
The global under-five mortality rate has reduced from 90 per 1000 in 1990 to 65 in 2008. That is significant progress. It shows that determined effort combined with economic advance can produce results. The figures on measles related deaths are the most dramatic, with a reduction of 92% in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2008.
But then comes the bad news. In 10 of the 26 developing countries with a significant decline in under-five mortality, the gap in under-five mortality between the richest and poorest households increased by 10 per cent or more, and in a further eight countries it either widened or stayed the same. This is the "moral failure" that Morgan speaks of, and UNICEF is calling for action to make development gains for children more equitably shared. In the words of Claire Melamed, the Head of the Growth and Equity programme at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), we need to respond to the "spirit of the MDGs", not just the numerical targets.
The ODI has also produced a report assessing progress on the MDGs called the MDG Report Card. One of its most interesting contibutions is to contrast "relative" and "absolute" progress towards the MDGs. The UNICEF report carries a map showing progress against MDG4 which is bleak reading for those concerned about Africa and South Asia (see graphic above). In these regions, it says, there has been "insufficient progress" or "no progress" on under-five mortality. (The world as whole is on track because of successes in Latin America and other parts of Asia.)
But hang on a minute, says the ODI report. Sub-Saharan Africa has actually made strong progress on reducing under-five mortality, with a reduction from 157 per 1000 to 124 per 1000 between 1990 and 2007. That means millions of children saved, now and in the future. But if you start from a worse position, it is harder to do well on the relative measure, which the UNICEF report uses, and which gives Africa only a 20% reduction.
Save the Children has also published a report on MDG progress for children, A fair chance at life, which raises another classic stats trap: while the percentage of children dying before the age of five is down in sub-Saharan Africa, the actual number has risen since 1990, because of population growth.
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Data summary
Child mortality and immunisations
Click heading to sort
Country
Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births
Infant mortality rate (0-1 year) per 1,000 live births
Children 1 year old immunized against measles, %
SOURCES: UN data, via our global development data search
Afghanistan
257
165
70
Albania
15
13
97
Algeria
37
33
92
Andorra
3
3
94
Angola
158
116
88
Antigua & Barbuda
11
10
99
Argentina
16
15
99
Armenia
24
22
92
Australia
6
5
94
Austria
4
4
79
Azerbaijan
39
34
97
Bahamas
13
12
96
Bahrain
10
9
99
Bangladesh
61
47
88
Barbados
12
11
75
Belarus
13
12
99
Belgium
5
4
92
Belize
25
22
96
Benin
123
78
61
Bhutan
84
56
95
Bolivia
57
48
81
Bosnia & Herzegovina
14
13
96
Botswana
40
33
90
Brazil
22
20
99
Brunei Darussalam
9
8
97
Bulgaria
12
10
96
Burkina Faso
191
104
94
Burundi
180
108
75
Cambodia
91
70
79
Cameroon
148
87
74
Canada
6
5
94
Cape Verde
32
24
74
Central African Republic
172
113
62
Chad
209
124
23
Chile
9
8
91
China
22
19
94
Colombia
20
17
95
Comoros
66
49
65
Congo
125
79
67
Congo, Dem Rep
161
108
79
Cook Islands
18
16
98
Costa Rica
11
10
90
Cote d'Ivoire
127
89
67
Croatia
6
5
96
Cuba
7
5
99
Cyprus
5
3
87
Czech Republic
4
3
97
Denmark
4
4
89
Djibouti
127
84
74
Dominica
11
9
96
Dominican Republic
38
31
96
Ecuador
22
20
99
Egypt
36
30
97
El Salvador
24
21
98
Equatorial Guinea
150
91
51
Eritrea
70
46
95
Estonia
6
4
96
Ethiopia
119
75
65
Fiji
18
16
81
Finland
4
3
98
France
4
4
87
Gabon
91
60
55
Gambia
109
82
85
Georgia
30
27
97
Germany
4
4
94
Ghana
115
73
95
Greece
4
4
88
Grenada
19
15
98
Guatemala
39
29
93
Guinea
150
93
71
Guinea-Bissau
198
118
76
Guyana
60
45
96
Haiti
76
57
58
Honduras
24
20
89
Hungary
7
6
99
Iceland
3
2
95
India
72
54
67
Indonesia
31
25
80
Iran
33
29
97
Iraq
44
36
69
Ireland
4
4
87
Israel
5
4
97
Italy
4
3
87
Jamaica
31
26
76
Japan
4
3
98
Jordan
24
21
95
Kazakhstan
32
28
99
Kenya
121
80
80
Kiribati
63
46
93
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of
55
42
99
Korea, Republic of
5
4
92
Kuwait
11
9
99
Kyrgyzstan
38
34
99
Lao People's Democratic Republic
70
56
40
Latvia
9
7
97
Lebanon
29
26
53
Lesotho
84
68
85
Liberia
133
93
95
Libya
18
17
98
Liechtenstein
3
2
Lithuania
8
7
97
Luxembourg
3
2
96
Macedonia
17
15
96
Madagascar
112
70
81
Malawi
111
71
83
Malaysia
11
10
90
Maldives
30
26
97
Mali
196
117
68
Malta
5
4
79
Marshall Islands
54
49
94
Mauritania
119
75
67
Mauritius
15
13
98
Mexico
21
19
96
Micronesia, Federated States of
40
33
92
Moldova
18
16
96
Monaco
4
3
99
Mongolia
43
35
98
Montenegro
10
9
90
Morocco
34
32
95
Mozambique
168
115
77
Myanmar
103
74
81
Namibia
68
47
69
Nauru
30
25
99
Nepal
55
43
81
Netherlands
5
4
96
New Zealand
6
5
79
Nicaragua
35
28
99
Niger
176
83
47
Nigeria
189
97
62
Niue
99
Norway
4
3
92
Oman
12
11
97
Pakistan
90
73
80
Palau
10
9
91
Palestinian Territory, occupied
27
24
Panama
23
18
89
Papua New Guinea
65
50
58
Paraguay
29
24
80
Peru
20
17
99
Philippines
28
23
92
Poland
7
6
98
Portugal
4
3
95
Qatar
15
12
92
Romania
15
13
97
Russia
15
13
99
Rwanda
121
76
99
Saint Kitts & Nevis
18
16
99
Saint Lucia
18
14
94
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines
19
17
99
Samoa
27
22
63
San Marino
4
4
92
Sao Tome & Principe
99
64
86
Saudi Arabia
25
20
96
Senegal
114
59
84
Serbia
8
7
95
Seychelles
13
12
99
Sierra Leone
262
155
67
Singapore
3
2
95
Slovakia
8
7
99
Slovenia
4
3
96
Solomon Islands
70
53
78
Somalia
142
88
34
South Africa
59
46
83
Spain
4
4
97
Sri Lanka
21
17
98
Sudan
109
69
79
Suriname
29
27
85
Swaziland
91
66
91
Sweden
3
3
96
Switzerland
5
4
86
Syrian Arab Republic
17
15
98
Tajikistan
67
57
85
Tanzania
116
73
90
Thailand
7
6
96
Timor-Leste
97
77
63
Togo
100
65
80
Tonga
23
19
99
Trinidad & Tobago
35
31
91
Tunisia
21
18
98
Turkey
23
21
96
Turkmenistan
50
45
99
Tuvalu
37
30
95
Uganda
130
82
68
Ukraine
16
14
98
United Arab Emirates
8
7
92
United Kingdom
6
5
86
United States
8
7
93
Uruguay
14
12
96
Uzbekistan
41
36
99
Vanuatu
34
28
65
Venezuela
19
17
55
Viet Nam
15
13
83
Yemen
73
55
74
Zambia
170
103
85
Zimbabwe
90
59
66
