Britain has recently invested heavily in flooding Zimbabwe’s schools with 13
million new books. Since David Coltart became the Education Minister for the
faction of the Movement for Democratic Change led by the student leader
Arthur Mutambara as part of the government of national unity, most of the
country’s schools are open every day of the school year, compared to being
chaotic and closed for over a hundred days in the previous one.
After years of chronic hyperinflation, the use of foreign currencies was
legalised in January 2009 and the ruined Zimbabwe dollar fell almost
entirely out of use. This masterstroke by Tendai Biti, the MDC Finance
Minister, means that shops and supermarkets throughout Harare are now full.
The economy grew for the first time in a decade last year by 4.5 per cent,
and annular inflation fell from 3.3 per cent in January to 3 per cent in
March.
For a country that had been on the brink of collapse in 2008, facing mass
starvation, political suppression and brutality, this is part of a
remarkable bounce back.
But the last two years of economic recovery and relative peace may be the calm
before the storm. Political suppression and the climate of intimidation are
back, as well as Robert Mugabe’s familiar rhetoric of bashing British and
American "imperialists".
Elton Mangoma, the MDC Energy Minister and an important ally of Prime Minister
Morgan Tsvangirai, was recently arrested on charges of abuse of office and
released on bail. The number of MDC officials and MPs being targeted and
followed by the feared Central Intelligence Organisation is again
increasing. In the open air markets of Harare, people are only willing to
voice opposition to Mugabe in hushed tones, and away from prying eyes. The
climate of intimidation is back.
Elections in Zimbabwe are synonymous with violent beatings, intimidation and
vote-rigging. Rumours abound that Mugabe is very ill with advanced prostate
cancer and that he is keen to bring forward elections which were not due
until 2013 to this year. He wants to secure enough votes for Zanu PF to rule
without the MDC, and without agreeing to a new constitution that was
promised in the 2008 political agreement.
Added to this, Mugabe’s government has had a huge windfall from diamonds in
the south of the country, claiming to have stockpiled some 4.6m carats worth
up to $1.7 billion. China has been steadily increasing its influence there,
building a new military base to gather intelligence for Mugabe, and recently
announcing about $700 million worth of lending.
Britain has an absolute moral duty to ensure that Zimbabwe is high on the
international agenda. Recent tragedies in Japan and New Zealand, and the
uprisings in North Africa have obviously focused the world’s attention away
from southern Africa, but we must not allow Zimbabwe to be lost to another
half decade of sclerotic and violent rule. Given our historical relationship
with Zimbabwe, we have a special responsibility.
Practically, we need to do three things. First, we need to ensure that Jacob
Zuma prevents Mugabe from cutting and running on the deal that South Africa
helped negotiate in 2008 by holding premature elections. As South Africa’s
president, he holds all the power in this situation.
Perhaps the most important element of that deal was the agreement to draft a
new and fully democratic constitution before elections in 2013. This has not
happened, and it now looks like Mugabe is trying to wriggle out of it.
Zimbabwe’s powerful Defence Minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is also pushing
Mugabe to hold early elections, fearing that the unity government's success
in stabilising the economy could be a boon for the MDC. This could well be
the case, and would be good for the MDC if free and fair elections were held
in 2013 under a new constitution.
Secondly, we need to end the sporting boycott. England missed an opportunity
to support democrats in Zimbabwe when it cancelled a cricket tour in 2009.
The MDC needs to be able to show that their presence in government is making
a difference. Isolating Mugabe with sporting boycotts and sanctions makes it
easier for him to argue that all of the world is against him, and blame his
self-made troubles on Britain and the west.
Thirdly, we may have to be prepared to drop some economic sanctions,
especially those that prevent companies investing. Jacob Zuma has said that
the sanctions are not helping, and that the unity government is being
"suffocated". The opposition in Zimbabwe is divided on the issue. Some
believe that the end of sanctions would lead to Mugabe flying straight to
London and declaring victory over the UK. However, if the price of doing a
deal with Zuma is to end some travel restrictions, then the price has got to
be worth paying.
In turn, Mugabe is threatening to nationalise foreign companies based in
Zimbabwe if sanctions are not dropped. Many domestic companies are in such
an appalling state that they have not made money in ten years, and exist
solely to pay the pensions and salaries of their employees. Foreign owned
assets therefore present a tempting target. Sanctions will be the main plank
of any future Mugabe election campaign, and the way they are currently set
up is doing more harm than good.
Zimbabwe is on a knife edge and this is a crucial moment. Mugabe is trying to
goad the MDC into pulling out of the coalition so he can call elections
which he may win through sheer intimidation. Britain needs to keep Zimbabwe
on the global political agenda, neutralise the sanctions issue as an
electoral advantage for Mugabe, and do a deal with Zuma to stop Zanu PF from
fighting dirty. Today’s generation of Zimbabwean children will not thank us
if we allow Mugabe and Zanu PF to keep their stranglehold on Zimbabwe
because we stubbornly insisted on maintaining a sanctions programme that did
not move the country towards full democracy.
Roland Rudd is Senior Partner at Finsbury and Chairman of Business for New
Europe.
