Raul Castro took two major reforms through the national assembly on Monday. Photograph: Ismael Francisco, Prensa Latina/AP
The fundamental instinct at the heart of Cuba's revolution in 1959 was that slower wealth creation and limited political repression were a price worth paying for fairer distribution, and the consequent eradication of extreme poverty. It may not have been articulated as such, but that is how it has played out.
Along with South Korea, Cuba probably has one of the most impressive and distinctive stories to tell in the annals of modern development. Apart from achieving near 100% literacy many years ago, its health statistics are the envy of many far richer countries. It is a small country, but not too small – with 11 million inhabitants it is the same size as Bolivia and four times the size of neighbouring Caribbean island Jamaica.
No other similar country adopted Cuba's approach to development, although some tried, and the differences between poverty in Cuba and other Latin and Caribbean countries are stark. While average income has grown in Cuba at a similar speed to other Latin American countries such as Bolivia, Colombia and El Salvador, the poverty and social conflict still experienced in the mainland countries is very apparent. In Cuba, the extremes of opulence and misery are banished in favour of a generalised level of wealth, best described as "enough to get by".
Cuba has certainly forfeited any chance of becoming an economic powerhouse because of the egalitarian policies it adopted, but that possibility was always a long shot anyway. Holding out for some kind of big economic takeoff may be a fool's game for most countries – and that might be one of the most important lessons for other countries that want to log the kind of development statistics Cuba has achieved. As former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide said of his country's aspirations, Haiti was not seeking grandeur but the more limited ambition of moving "from misery to poverty with dignity".
It is easy to get seduced by Cuba's impressive development indicators and its assertions of idealist possibilities. The statistics are certainly dramatic, as Overseas Development Institute research emphasised last year. And Fidel Castro has certainly contributed as many wise and progressive thoughts to the world as he has unfortunate ramblings. But there are serious problems at the heart of the Cuban development model that have been left unaddressed for far too long.
Castro's leadership was the key factor in rapidly rising living standards for the poorest. In 1958, under the Batista dictatorship, half of Cuba's children did not attend school. The literacy campaign begun by Castro in 1961 led, in 1970, to Unesco declaring Cuba the country with the highest primary and secondary school enrolment in Latin America. These development gains, among others, have continued to this day.
But there have been two broad consequences. First, a generation of educated young people aspire to more in terms of living standards and life chances than their parents ever did. It is no coincidence that the older generation is more uncritically supportive of the revolution than the young – it knows what Cuba was like before.
Second, state-led development and investment is costly, especially when the international context becomes less favourable. Relying on goodwill, volunteering and accumulated capital has worked perhaps longer than anyone anticipated, but eventually wealth must be created and that, as the critics have always maintained, means a platform for the private sector to grow.
So it is better late than never that Raúl Castro, Fidel's brother, has finally bowed to pressure and taken two major reforms through the national assembly. First, travel restrictions will be loosened, making it much easier for Cubans to travel abroad. And second, authorisation and encouragement will be given to small businesses. These follow on from other reforms and are part of a gradual but significant shift in Cuban development theory intended to strengthen a weak economy.
Apart from the notable economic benefits that should accrue from shifting thousands of jobs from the public to the private sector, the cultural and psychological effects will be enormous. Cuban youth has been immensely frustrated in recent years by the perceived inability to let its creativity flourish beyond a tight set of parameters. Right from the start, the Cuban revolutionaries acknowledged that policy decisions should encourage human flourishing rather than simply economic advantage, yet the consequences of denying opportunities to young people have contradicted these ideals.
The Cuban development model is as distinctive and worthy of study as those of the east Asian tigers. It has spent the last 60 years proving the doubters wrong, despite the constant attention of powerful ideologues gunning for its humiliation. The question is, how fast and deep do reforms need to be to ensure that the gains made are retained, while the aspirations of Cuba's people for more freedom and opportunity are met and the economy holds up?
In my view, it is appropriate and important that changes be implemented carefully and slowly. The gains made by the Castro regime in terms of state provision of basic public goods may seem solid enough, but the national and global economies are the objects of surprises and shocks.
If the challenge in the 1960s and 1970s was to establish a way of working totally counter to what had gone before, the challenge now is to demonstrate that the model can evolve into something more appropriate for the present context, without undermining its most impressive achievements. If it can do that, it will continue to present, as its detractors correctly feared, the "danger of a good example" and merit the attention of development theorists and practitioners seeking proven means to eradicate poverty.
Angry demonstrators believe the army has failed to break decisively with Mubarak's era and believe it will manoeuvre to keep a hand on the levers of power even after turning over day-to-day government to civilians.
No one doubts the army will proceed with Egypt's first free and fair parliamentary election in November and a presidential vote afterwards, nor does anyone expect that the balloting will be accompanied by the rigging routinely practised in Mubarak's time.
But many demonstrators who marched on the Defence Ministry and military bases in Cairo and other cities last weekend question whether the army, which has provided Egypt's rulers for six decades, is ready to cede decisive authority to civilians.
"The army is going through the motions of transitioning to civilian government but the foot-dragging indicates they really want to remain in control even after a new government is elected," Mohamed Fahmy, a protester in Cairo's Tahrir Square, said, echoing an increasingly common view among protesters.
The military's reputation was sky-high in February when soldiers ordered into the streets during the anti-Mubarak uprising did not fire on demonstrators, implicitly backing calls for democratisation. But the army's image has been tarnished since then as protesters have accused the military brass of being slow to pursue reforms and sweep out corruption.
Protesters in Cairo on Saturday marched on the Defence Ministry to demand root-and-branch change but were blocked by a cordon of barbed wire and troops. The demonstrators clashed with stone-throwing men, while the army did little to intervene.
Activists say the army is now acting more like the authorities under Mubarak. For example, they say, the army has not fully purged the interior and justice ministries, although there has been sweep-out of many officers and officials.
"Egypt's rulers have always come from army ranks. The army considers what happened six months ago as an uprising against Mubarak's succession plans, not an actual revolution that changes power structures," said Ammar Ali Hasan, head of Middle East Studies Centre. He was referring to widespread perceptions that Mubarak had been grooming his son Gamal for the presidency. "It wants to remain in power either through direct or indirect means," he added.
The army insists it is not hanging on to the old order. Deputy Defence Minister General Mohamed al-Asar, speaking in Washington, said the army was "not an extension of the former regime," according to Egyptian media.
The military says it has no desire to stay in government and that it is sticking to the timetable to ensure a smooth transition. A parliamentary election is scheduled for November, two months later than many expected but still within a broad framework laid out earlier this year.
But handing over day-to-day government does not necessarily mean the army plans to relinquish the reins of power, analysts say. Instead, they expect the army to slip into the political wings from where it will be able to wield strong influence.
"The concern of the army is making sure it remains shielded as a 'state within a state' (so) that no one questions the establishment about the budget or the establishment's internal matters," military analyst Safwat Zayaat said.
Analysts point to the role the military has played in Turkey and Pakistan as possible models for Egypt's generals.
Privately, officers say there are interests to protect. The military runs factories, builds roads and owns large tracts of real estate. Top officers have traditionally expected senior posts as sinecures when they leave the military.
"The army undoubtedly has interests to keep ... as Egypt's future political scene is mapped," an army source told Reuters.
But publicly the army says it is moving as swiftly as possible to civilian rule and has urged Egyptians to be patient.
"We are committed to pressing ahead in turning Egypt into a modern civilian state," Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Mubarak's defence minister for two decades who now heads the military council, said in a televised address on Saturday.
Protesters remain suspicious. The clashes in Cairo erupted after Tantawi spoke. "The people want to bring down the field marshal!" some chanted. It is an increasingly common refrain.
The army has praised the youths who led Egypt's uprising but has lashed out at the April 6 movement, the group which played a leading role in rallying Egyptians against Mubarak and is now at the forefront of criticism of the army.
"April 6 is seeking to sow sedition by driving a wedge between the army and the people," the army council said in its Communique No. 69. It also said it was taking steps to prevent the group achieving its goal.
But the army source said views on how to proceed varied. "The council is by no means homogenous. There are generals who are more understanding and more sympathetic to the demands of protesters than others," he said.
Activists said there had been pressure on founders of the Facebook page "We are All Khaled Said", which led the online calls to oust Mubarak, to stop posting calls for street rallies.
"The page helped trigger the revolution. Now it is under pressure from security and is no longer in the lead," Amr Gharbeia, an Egyptian blogger told Reuters.
April 6 say the army's criticism is designed to discredit the movement but that the group will not ease the pressure.
"The council takes ongoing street protests to be a challenge to its authority and we consider protesting peacefully an indication that changes are needed and those heading the transitional government are falling behind the spirit of Tahrir," said Mohamed Adel, spokesman of April 6.
Some other groups have also rallied in support.
"The military council is not the army but a council with a specific political mandate authorised by the people to run the country in this transitional period. The people have the right to keep it or banish the council," the Muslim Brotherhood youth and other groups said in a joint statement.
But there are divisions too in the protest movement. Mainstream voices in the Brotherhood, Egypt's most organised Islamist group, have been more cautious in any criticism.
The group spent decades being repressed by Mubarak's security forces and is now enjoying unprecedented freedoms, something analysts say it is wary of squandering by angering the army.
Insurgents of the Islamic State of Iraq
- an umbrella group for Sunni militants- have funded their operations in the
past by robbing jewelry stores, banks and offices where the government pays
out monthly salaries. But the group has seen its main source of money,
funding from abroad, dry up, leaving the group strapped for cash.
In an Arabic statement posted on al-Qaeda
in Iraq's online forum, website administrator Seif Saad lamented the state
of the group's finances and launched an urgent appeal for money to "feed
the widows and the orphans" of mujahedeen, or holy warriors.
"A few days ago a brother was martyred, leaving behind a wife and
children. There is no need to explain how we were running here and there to
collect money for their minimum requirements of life," wrote Saad.
Among the new ideas to raise funds, Saad suggested insurgents find a way to
extort money from foreign oil, construction, transport and cell phone
companies, as well as international media agencies. If the companies refused
to pay, insurgents would disrupt their operations. He did not elaborate.
He also said businessmen and wealthy families should be forced to pay annual
zakat, or charity, which Islam stipulates should be roughly two percent of
assets, and called for imposing fines on wealthy Shiites in Iraq "who
receive aid from America and the West and steal the country's oil revenues."
Mohamed Abdel-Hadi, who identified himself online another administrator for
the website, dismissed the idea of taking money from foreign companies, but
said he strongly supports fining Shiites.
"All the Shiites, including merchants or government officials, are
infidels and confiscating their money is part of jihad," he wrote.
A visitor on the website posted a comment suggesting militants kidnap company
executives in return for hefty ransoms that could finance a prolonged
insurgency.
Another contributor advised recruiting specialized Internet hackers to
transfer money from U.S. banks to trusted people. The contributor did not
elaborate.
The Islamic State of Iraq claimed responsibility for last year's heists of the
Central Bank of Iraq and a state-run investment center.
The global arm of al-Qaeda has itself appealed for funds in the past. One
request was made by al-Qaida's Ayman al-Zawahri, who became the leader of
the group after the death of Osama bin Laden.
Last year, al-Qaeda's top commander in Afghanistan, Mustafa Abu al-Yazeed,
also appealed for more funding, saying militants battling NATO forces were
hampered by a lack of money and equipment.
Osama bin Laden, who was killed by US forces in Pakistan in May, also appealed
for more funds in some of his statement, urging businessmen to direct their
alms to al-Qaida.
The 38-year-old, who is also presumed to be the head of al-Qaeda in east
Africa, was killed on Wednesday according to Kenya's police chief.
He died after the pickup truck he was travelling in was fired at by Somali
government troops at a checkpoint.
The claim confirmed a report from Somali Islamist Shebab rebels, although DNA
tests are believed to be under way to confirm the dead man's identity.
More than 220 people died and 5,000 were hurt in the 1998 attacks - the first
major al-Qaeda attack on US targets.
Fazul Abdullah is thought to have planned the massive US embassy truck
bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam and had a $5 million bounty on his
head.
"We have received that communication from authorities in Somalia. We
have been told that there were two terrorists who were killed in Somalia on
Wednesday last week," Kenyan Police Commissioner Mathew Iteere said.
Fazul Abdullah, who was born in the Comoros islands, joined al-Qaeda in 1991.
From 2002 he was put in charge of al-Qaeda's operations in the whole of east
Africa. That same year he planned anti-Israeli attacks in Mombasa that left
15 dead.
On January 8, 2007 he survived a US raid that left dozens of people dead at
Ras Kamboni in southern Somalia.
Josette Sheeran, executive director of the UN World Food Programme, said at an
emergency UN summit in Rome that the refugee routes into Kenya risked
becoming "roads of death".
"We want to make sure the supplies are there along the road because some
of them are becoming roads of death where mothers are having to abandon
their children who are too weak to make it or who have died along the way,"
she said.
The
number of Somalis needing urgent food aid has jumped by one million people
and children are worst affected, the UN's children's charity said on Monday.
The new data came as senior officials from the G20 nations met in Rome, where
Bruno le Maire, France's agriculture minister, said the famine was set to
become "the scandal of the century" if action was not taken.
Almost 800,000 children in Somalia are now "acutely malnourished"
and in need of special feeding - an increase of 40 per cent. 82 per cent of
them are in the country's south, which is largely cut off from aid
deliveries.
The number of people needing help has increased by one million since January,
and is 85 per cent higher than at the same time last year, Unicef said.
Afshan Khan, a Unicef director, told the Rome conference that the response to
the current crisis must be "flexible".
"We must apply a range of modalities in different circumstances and
adapting our response to local conditions and needs," he said.
Unicef is one of the few agencies so far able to bring supplies into
Islamist-held areas of southern Somalia, and Mr Khan's statement was seen as
an indication that arrangements were on the table to increase such
deliveries.
No new aid pledges came from the meeting, held by the United Nation's Food and
Agriculture Organisation. But politicians welcomed an announcement of f310m
in fresh World Bank funds to help fight the current drought and prepare
those already affected to cope with future dry spells.
"The recurring nature of drought and growing risk it poses to social and
economic gains in this region calls not only for immediate relief from the
current situation, but also for building long term drought resilience,"
said Obiageli Ezekwesili, the World Bank's vice president for Africa.
Promises of help to safeguard the future were welcome but too late, said
Barbara Stocking, the head of Oxfam.
"This meeting was a first step," she said. "But the fact that
we are here again, three years after the world said never again to famine,
shows that strong action is required as well as strong words.
"Often it feels as if the donor community is prepared to be very generous
when it comes to this crisis but is simply not prepared to commit to the
longer term."
Another meeting will be held in Nairobi, Kenya's capital, on Wednesday, when
fresh promises are expected to fund programmes to save up to 11.5 million
people in the Horn of Africa.
Among the worst affected are seeking help in Mogadishu, Somalia's wrecked
capital, where the internationally-backed administration is struggling with
an influx of more than 1,000 people a day.
They are camping between bombed-out buildings in the city, in the few areas
controlled by the government.
But there are concerns that an expected military push against al-Shabaab, the
pro-al-Qaeda Islamists ruling the rest of the city, could trigger a second
crisis.
Sources confirmed a fresh offensive next month that is aimed at wrenching back
control of the city from the insurgency.
"That is definitely complicated by the internally displaced people now
flooding into the city," said one adviser to the Somali government.
Batulo Abukar 29, told The Daily Telegraph in Mogadishu that three of her
children died as she fled Bakool, one of the two Somali famine zones, for
Mogadishu.
She was also pregnant and lost that baby on her walk to safety.
"It is very painful, I am laying here now, I delivered a dead baby and
all the other three died on the road," Mrs Abukar said.
"We left about six elderly people under tree waiting their death because
they couldn't walk and no one would help them."
Additional reporting by Abukar Albadri in Mogadishu.
