"Our impression right now is that Mubarak is still protected by someone, maybe the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, maybe someone from outside. Some countries still protect him," said Mohamed Mahmoud, 33, a youth movement coordinator in Suez, one of the most violent spots in the uprising that unseated Mubarak.
Shortly after he spoke, dozens of protesters marched past Suez's burnt-out police headquarters and on to a military barracks chanting slogans against the army for foot-dragging. Barbed wire and army vehicles blocked the road approaching it.
Mubarak's trial, set to start on Aug. 3, has put the army in a tight spot. It is squeezed on one side by protesters demanding the ousted president be held to account and on the other by conservative Gulf Arab states quietly pressing for Egypt not to humiliate a former ally, partly - analysts say - because this might set a dangerous precedent for their own rulers.
Officers privately admit the military has no appetite for trying the decorated veteran who led Egypt's air force in the 1973 war against Israel. Publicly, however, they insist they are not taking sides and it is in the hands of the judiciary.
Regardless of the army's discomfort, Mubarak's fate will be secondary to protecting the military's own reputation and securing its future role that could see it lurk on the political sidelines, in the same way the army did in Turkey, for years.
"They will not go down protecting Mubarak because the preservation of their own organisation and the institution of the military is more important to them. If that means throwing Mubarak under the bus, then I think that is something they are willing to do," said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center.
"The question is: is that something they have to do or they feel they need to do at this point? I think that is still an open question," he said.
There may be ways to reduce any public humiliation, while still letting the judicial process proceed.
Mubarak, 83, has been in hospital in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh since April, when he was first questioned. He has already been spared, on health grounds, a move to the Cairo prison where his two sons and other former officials are held.
His illness could yet spare him a court appearance. Many Egyptians see his sickness as a ruse used to protect him.
Protester Mahmoud in Suez says the army may have another plan. "They just want to waste time until his death. That is the game," he said.
If convicted of involvement in killing protesters, the most serious charge facing Mubarak, he could face the death penalty.
Though protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square or Arbaein in central Suez may call for the gallows in their chants, ordinary Egyptians are not necessarily keen to see him hang.
But even if many don't wish him dead, they do want him to answer what the regards as his abuse of power during 30 years in office. They accuse him of crushing opponents and letting his allies and a privileged elite act as if they were above the law.
Such views even hold for many who live in Mubarak's home town in the Nile Delta.
"They will try him like anyone else because the revolutionaries say if he is not tried they will overthrow the army. There has to be justice," said school administrator Fathi Rady, 52, tending plants in the town of Kafr Musailha.
But there are those in his hometown - and elsewhere in Egypt - who question the need to try him. They say the army is simply bowing to pressure from protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square who are extending the economic turmoil hurting Egyptians.
"If people in Tahrir ask for it, they will try him. But those guys (protesters) don't understand. People have to work. They are making trouble for the country," said Saeed Abdelaziz, 36, who works in the governorate's office but has a second job ironing clothes in the street where Mubarak once lived.
While protesters push the army to put Mubarak in the dock, fellow Arabs - notably wealthy Gulf states which have pledged billions of dollars in aid to Egypt - have been leaning on the generals not to set an uncomfortable precedent in the region.
"What happens in Egypt has reverberations throughout the region," said Kamran Bokhari, an analyst at global intelligence firm STRATFOR. "The Gulf states know that and they would like to be able to keep any such trends in check."
One Egyptian official, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Gulf states had made it clear they did not want to see Mubarak in court.
In particular he pointed to pressure from Saudi Arabia, which has given huge cash handouts to silence any grumbles among its own citizens and sent troops as part of a Gulf force to Bahrain when the monarchy there was challenged by protesters.
Kuwait's ambassador to Cairo, Rasheed Hamad Al Hamad, dismissed the idea of any official Gulf Arab policy to prevent Mubarak's trial. But he said: "There are people in the Gulf, ordinary people, they don't want to see any president in a bad situation like that."
Mubarak was the second Arab leader to fall after Tunisia's Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. But he is the first who could stand trial at home. Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia and was tried in absentia.
But Gulf states, while wielding leverage via their deep pockets, are not likely to exert the kind of pressure to stop a Mubarak trial if it would plunge Egypt further into political turmoil as it struggles to right the battered economy.
"They will press and continue to press, but they will calibrate it," said Bokhari.
Women queue to sign up for the World Food Programme emergency distributions in Dolo, Somalia. Last week, the UN declared two regions of Somalia to be in famine. Photograph: Jason Straziuso/AP
The east Africa drought has continued to dominate news coverage on the global development site over the past two weeks.
Days after the Kenyan government agrees to open the fourth refugee camp at Dadaab to accommodate the thousands of Somalis arriving at the complex each day, the UN declares famine in two regions of Somalia.
Mark Tran explores the reasons why famine has struck the country again, and how aid agencies respond to this kind of crisis.
The UK pledges an extra $85.2m in aid for those affected by drought in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, and the US follows suit with an additional $28m specifically to assist Somalians, although whether it will reach those in most need has been thrown into doubt after the rebel group al-Shabaab, an organisation on the US terrorist list, denies it has lifted a ban on foreign aid groups operating in the country, and denies famine exists.
In response to the crisis, the Food and Agriculture Organisation convenes a meeting in Rome. Somalia's deputy prime minister tells attendees that people face starvation in rebel-held areas of the country. Meanwhile, Kanayo Nwanze, the head of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, a UN special agency, chastises the lack of political leadership in Africa in supporting agriculture.
Elsewhere on the site
A year after the floods in Pakistan, Islamic Relief criticises the international community for failing to provide enough support for recovery efforts, while warning the country is ill-prepared to cope with this year's monsoon season.
In Malawi, anti-government supporters clash with riot police. We look at the reasons behind the protests.
At the AfricaSan3 conference in Rwanda, the Gates Foundation announces it is expanding its sanitation programme to spur innovation in an often neglected sector.
And Mark Tran interviews Sadako Ogata, president of the Japan International Co-operation Agency, who defends the country's relationship with Africa.
Coming up on the site
We'll have more on Pakistan, one year after the floods.
Claire Provost will be reporting from Egypt on projects seeking to address youth unemployment.
We'll be launching our latest Focus podcast, which this month examines the issue of population and development.
And we'll have a video highlighting the findings of a study that found 90% of people in areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo still live in fear of the Lord's Resistance Army.
Multimedia
Audio slideshow: Africa drought: Arriving at Dadaab
Photographer Kate Holt travelled to the Dadaab refugee camps in north-east Kenya to report on conditions for new arrivals from Somalia.
In pictures: Drought in east Africa: Responding to child nutrition needs
As part of the international response, Unicef is leading the child nutrition cluster. More than 2 million children under five in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia are acutely malnourished, including almost 500,000 children who are suffering from life-threatening severe acute malnutrition.
In pictures: Hunger and food security in India
Photographer Tom Pietrasik reports on attempts to tackle food shortages and hunger in rural India
Achievement awards
There's only a few days left to nominate someone for this year's Guardian international development achievement awards, which celebrate outstanding contributions to global poverty alleviation. Find out more about the competition.
What you said: Some of the best comments from our readers
Responding to a post by Claire Provost on Kenya's Open Data Initiative, anthonyst writes:
Empowerment and a people driven government were the dreams of this nation for more than 48 years when it gained independence. During those 48 years what the datesets do not say is how much the country has lost to corruption, grand-theft, embezzlement and a whole lot of other endemic ills.
Writing on a post by Andy Sumner and Charles Kenny on the World Bank's classification of countries by levels of income, SabreDom says:
In Ghana, where we work, the case for support in the education sector is massive, particularly at the foundation level. Big donors are just starting to look at this sector, but a reclassification could count against Ghana as aid budgets get tighter.
And on our Talk point asking for your views on population growth, bemusement writes:
Discussion about the potential threat of population growth and overpopulation is now problematic in its own right. The debate is heavily polarised ... There are many vested interests with well-reasoned concerns and arguments. However, together these make for extremely unfruitful discussion – essentially each beating the other over the head with one end of a pole!
Highlights from the blogosphere
This week we welcome two new bloggers to our blogosphere.
Karen Grepin, is a global health expert resident at New York University, her research area is the economics and politics of health service delivery in developing countries, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. Read her latest post on whether a health service in Kenya can help save lives.
Laura Seay is an assistant professor of political science at Morehouse College in Atlanta, Georgia, where she teaches African politics, conflict and international affairs. Seay began her blog in 2005 while living and working in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and says it reflects her research interests in state-building, security, and humanitarian and development policy. She recently blogged on the rationale for not arming South Sudan.
Also on the blogosphere this week, Oxfam's Duncan Green asks why we know so little about how poor people "do" development.
The spy, referred to only as "SIS2", said Mr Campbell was prone to have
"rushes of blood to the head", in perhaps the most damning criticism of the
former spin doctor by any witness heard by the inquiry so far.
Sir John Chilcot, the chairman of the inquiry, called the witness last year,
but a transcript of his evidence has only now been released after being
declassified.
Sir Lawrence Freedman, a member of the inquiry panel, asked the officer to
describe the relationship the Secret Intelligence Service had with Downing
Street.
SIS2 replied: "We did have regular links with Alastair Campbell…we found
(him), I think, an enthusiastic individual, but also somewhat of an unguided
missile.
"From the outset we had concerns…he also, I think, suffered from his
propensity to have rushes of blood to the head and pass various stories and
information to journalists without appropriate prior consultation."
The role Mr Campbell played in compiling an intelligence dossier that helped
Tony Blair’s government make the case for war in Iraq is one of the issues
which will be addressed when the Inquiry publishes its report later this
year.
SIS2 said there was "not enormous enthusiasm" for the plan to publish the
dossier, and that the decision to release previously secret information
caused "concern" within the service.
The officer said Mr Campbell "undertook to do better" after the dossier was
criticised for misleading the public and MPs about the threat posed by
Saddam Hussein’s weaponry.
He also accepted that MI6 was "flying a bit too close to the sun" and came
"perilously close" to stepping beyond its role of providing intelligence to
the government and into the realm of policy making.
"We were probably too eager to please," he added.
The inquiry also declassified evidence given by Sir John Scarlett, the former
chief of MI6, who said the intelligence failures over Saddam’s weapons of
mass destruction caused "a morale issue" within the service.
He added that there was "a lot of unease" about what had happened and in
particular about the "unprecedented" public criticism that "hit home"
following the publication in 2004 of the Butler Report, which criticised the
erroneous claims made in the dossier about Saddam’s weapons of mass
destruction programme.
Waste, mismanagement and poorly conceived projects mean the United States
could have lost more than 15 per cent of the total given out in contracts
and grants.
More could yet be lost as US troops pull out of Afghanistan,
with the withdrawal risking "massive new wastes of money" because
the Afghan government cannot finish costly projects already begun.
The unfinished report has taken three years to compile and offers the most
detailed account yet of the magnitude of the contractor workforce which has
mushroomed around the conflicts.
America will have spent f128 million on private contracts and grants by the
end of September.
The coalition allies rely on hired staff for everything from feeding troops
and cleaning latrines to guarding convoys, manning surveillance equipment
and building schools and wells.
Around 209,000 contractors were on the US payroll at one time - 60,000 more
than the combined number of US troops now in the two countries.
The Commission on Wartime Contracting study cites wasteful projects such as an
agricultural aid project spending f625,000 per day paying Afghan farmers to
work in their own fields.
A sub-contractor in eastern Afghanistan spent a fifth of its funds on one
project paying protection money to local insurgents to avoid being attacked.
A new Afghan military academy would cost f25 million to maintain, far more
than Kabul regime's budget could afford.
The way contractors are used must be overhauled immediately to avoid repeating
the waste in future wars or crises, the draft said according to the Wall
Street Journal.
"Delay and inactivity are not good options, for there will be a next
contingency, whether the crisis takes the form of overseas hostilities or
response to a declared national emergency like a mass-casualty terror attack
or natural disaster," the draft said.
The Iraq Historic Allegations Team (IHAT) was established last year to take
statements from around 140 Iraqi civilians who claim they were abused by
British service personnel between 2003 and 2009.
However, a lawyer representing the alleged victims claims only one of his
clients has been interviewed since IHAT began its work in November.
Phil Shiner, of Public Interest Lawyers (PIL), said his clients are refusing
to co-operate because they say the investigators will not follow guidelines
for interviewing vulnerable witnesses.
Mr Shiner told the BBC: "It's been a complete and utter shambles, it must have
cost the tax payer millions."
He said the first attempt to take statements from Iraqis in Lebanon ended when
authorities there asked investigators to leave.
A second attempt in Turkey was abandoned when an interviewee objected to the
questioning and flew home to Iraq.
Describing his clients as "vulnerable and intimidated witnesses", Mr Shiner
said: "It was a multiple of serious errors they (IHAT) made. They clearly
haven't been trained."
He added that IHAT investigators had failed to follow civilian Achieving Best
Evidence guidelines.
IHAT, which has an 83-strong team of military and former civilian police
detectives, denies the claims.
Geoff White, a former Detective Chief Superintendent of Staffordshire police,
who heads IHAT, said: "We are only some seven months into a two year process.
"Our aim is to get to the bottom of what is alleged to have occurred with a
view to deciding if there is sufficient evidence to refer cases for
potential prosecution.
"It is crucial in all these cases that those who have made the allegations are
interviewed.
"I simply do not accept that the difficulties we now face stem from failings
on the part of IHAT.
"We have taken advice from an experienced Queen's Counsel and his conclusion
is that there was no reasonable basis for Public Interest Lawyers decision
to advise complainants to withdraw from the interviews."
A spokesman said investigators had interviewed one complainant and begun
questioning two others but these had to be abandoned.
Some of the complainants are seeking a public inquiry and damages from the
British Government.
The High Court has previously ruled that IHAT’s methods are appropriate. PIL
is appealing against that ruling.
IHAT is expected to cost f7.5 million during its two years of work.
The report of a public inquiry into the death of Baha Mousa, an Iraqi
civilian, who died in British Army custody is to be published in September.
Mr Mousa, 26, sustained 93 injuries while being held by 1st Bn the Queen's
Lancashire Regiment in Basra in 2003.
